Solitaire Trader

Watchlist for 5/1/06

This list is just a list of stocks of interest, it isn't a buy list in any way.  Any feedback would be appreciated.

The first day of the month has recently been the best day of the month.  See this post on Ticker Sense for details.

The numbers continue to decline, but there's an interesting divergence - stocks with charts in Xs went up even though PnF buy signals declined.  Since a stock usually has to move its chart to X before it can create a buy signal, this could be a sign of an upcoming move up (just in time).

I'm long IWM calls expecting strength on Monday and possibly Tuesday.  After that, I'll be waiting for the market to get overbought.  Of course, I could be wrong and it just goes down, but what would be the fun in that?

Remember, Darvas stocks are stocks where price is more than double the 52 week low.

Darvas Stocks (>$5 share, >60,000 average volume)

As of 4/28/06: (portfolio stocks underlined)

Number of Darvas Stocks: 631(+3)
Number of Darvas Stocks with a Point and Figure (PnF) buy signal: 518 (-11)
Bullish Percent: 82.1% (-2.1%)

Number of Darvas Stocks with Point and Figure Charts in Xs: 385 (+35)

Number of Darvas Stocks at new 52 week highs: 41 (6.5%, +13)
New highs with 2.5x average volume:
ADVS, ANEN, CHDX, CTV, FRNS, JOBS, JSDA, MICC, NETC, PFWD, PLXS, TGE, TNL

New PnF buy signals:
OPLK
New PnF sell signals:
EVST, GDI, GEHL, MSTR, NTW, NWRE, PRLS, SIFY, TRID, WLT

New PnF Charts in Xs:
55 stocks (too many to list), including ARD, ASEI, BTU, BTUI, DRQ, FTO, GI, GMXR, HOC, ILMN, ISE, JLG, JOYG, KNDL, LUFK, PD, TIE, TS, VLO, WFR, WIRE

Last Stochastic (Slow Stochastic 39,3) cross of 20 with a PnF buy:
BMRN, YMI

MACD below zero cross with a PnF buy:
GGR, GIL, KG

Parabolic SAR buy signal with Last Stochastic<50, MACD<0, PnF buy:
LSI, SNUS

Most Interesting stock of the day from the above screens:
BMRN - Biomarin Pharmaceutical

Bullish MACD cross, stochastic coming out of oversold, almost a nice symmetrical triangle on the chart.

PnF price objective is 18.25, a 48% move up from here.

Week of 4/24/06

The portfolio was up +2.53% this week.

The Russell 2000 was down -0.99%. 

Month to date (for April) the portfolio is up +4.27%.   The Russell 2000 is -0.08%.

Year to date the portfolio is up +12.91%.  The Russell 2000 is up +13.56%.

Over the past 52 weeks the portfolio is up +36.02% while the Russell is up +31.96%.

April 2006

For April 2006 the portfolio was up +4.27%.

The Russell 2000 was down  -0.08%.

Over the last 12 months the portfolio is up +36.02% while the Russell 2000 was up +31.96%.

For April 2006 the portfolio was up +4.27%.

The Russell 2000 was down  -0.08%.

Over the last 12 months the portfolio is up +36.02% while the Russell 2000 was up +31.96%.

For April 2006 the portfolio was up +4.27%.

The Russell 2000 was down  -0.08%.

Over the last 12 months the portfolio is up +36.02% while the Russell 2000 was up +31.96%.

NYB

Bought NYB today at 17.01.

Although you wouldn't know it from the current portfolio, I love financial stocks.  They have had a hard time for the past year but some have been popping up on my radar recently.  This is a value play that looks like it might have hit a bottom.

4/28/06

The portfolio was up  +0.51% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.  It has hit a new high 4 days in a row.

The Russell 2000 was up +0.41%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 86 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.51% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.  It has hit a new high 4 days in a row.

The Russell 2000 was up +0.41%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 86 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.51% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.  It has hit a new high 4 days in a row.

The Russell 2000 was up +0.41%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 86 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.51% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.  It has hit a new high 4 days in a row.

The Russell 2000 was up +0.41%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 86 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.51% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.  It has hit a new high 4 days in a row.

The Russell 2000 was up +0.41%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 86 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.51% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.  It has hit a new high 4 days in a row.

The Russell 2000 was up +0.41%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 86 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.51% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.  It has hit a new high 4 days in a row.

The Russell 2000 was up +0.41%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 86 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

Sold ECLP

Sold ECLP today at 22.14 for a -5.27% loss.  It hit its stop. This was purchased on April 18th.

My Path to 78R in Profits

Last night Trader Mike made an interesting post: My Path to 100R in Profits in Day Trading.

I thought it would be interesting to look at my performance since the beginning of the year using the same metrics.

• I have made 78 R in profits from completed trades since January 1.

• My expectancy (which can be calculated from the data in any Daily Performance post) is 0.58.

• Trader Mike is a daytrader so I presume he has no unrealized gains.  I am not a daytrader (although I have made a handful of daytrades this year, including one today).  I have an additional 72 R in profits sitting in the portfolio as unrealized gains.

• Of course, I won't actually book that 72R unless I sell everything right now.  If you calculate using the point where my stops are placed currently, if every stock in the portfolio dropped to its stop today the additional profit would be 38R.  So my stops are protecting roughly half of the gains out there.

• My 90 winning trades total 145R for an average of 1.61R.

• My 85 losing trades total -66R for an average of -0.77R.

• My biggest single winning trade was 8.3R (it was VRTX, by the way).  It was held for 3 months.

• My biggest losing trade was -5R (it was FOSL).  Yep, I pulled my stop.  It gapped down through my stop and didn't recover.

• On the other hand, I once pulled my stop for FMD on a gap down and it worked - FMD is my second biggest unrealized winner behind NTRI.  Both FMD and NTRI are currently monsters.  I have two lots of FMD that are 9R trades each, and my first lot of NTRI is a 13R trade currently.

• Trader Mike's R value started at 0.3% of his equity.  My R value?  Drum roll, please - my R value is currently 0.13% of my equity.  Yes, I'm trading very small for the size of my account.  Given the state of the market this year I have preferred to keep my trades small.  I have the luxury of not having to make a living off my trading - since I own a profitable, private software company the money flow is into the account, not out.  After the market drops later this year and I feel that we may be hitting a good bottom, I'll increase my R value.

• Also, I have not yet used margin this year.  Nevertheless, I am getting some value from compounding, although not as much as I would if I were more aggressive.  I don't believe the current market is a good one to be aggressive, though.

UglyChart posted his numbers, which are also interesting.

Watchlist for 4/28/06

This list is just a list of stocks of interest, it isn't a buy list in any way.  Any feedback would be appreciated.

There is considerable decline in the numbers today.  Is this setting up for a good change of month rally move, or is this the advance sign of the 4 year cycle top?  Maybe we'll find out next week.

Remember, Darvas stocks are stocks where price is more than double the 52 week low.

Darvas Stocks (>$5 share, >60,000 average volume)

As of 4/27/06: (portfolio stocks underlined)

Number of Darvas Stocks: 628 (-16)
Number of Darvas Stocks with a Point and Figure (PnF) buy signal: 529 (-29)
Bullish Percent: 84.2% (-2.4%)

Number of Darvas Stocks with Point and Figure Charts in Xs: 350 (-69)

Number of Darvas Stocks at new 52 week highs: 28 (4.5%, -30)
New highs with 2.5x average volume:
AMKR, ASPV, CHRT, CRUS, FRNS, JOBS, LMNX, PMTI, SHOO, SKX

New PnF buy signals:
DXPE, LMNX
New PnF sell signals:
ACI, AMLN, ASEI, ATI, BUCY, CENX, CNQR, CPL, EXP, FCX, ITCG, JLG, LAB, OPTC, OS, PBR, RS, RTI, TEX

New PnF Charts in Xs:
AAPL, ASPV, CONN, GEHL, HMY, HOLX, ISIS, LMNX, LPTH, LVS, MNKD, PTRY, STRL, TWTR, URGI, WCC

Last Stochastic (Slow Stochastic 39,3) cross of 20 with a PnF buy:
ALO, DDD, GGR, LANV, LMNX, LSI

MACD below zero cross with a PnF buy:
BMRN, CELG, ISIS, LMNX

Parabolic SAR buy signal with Last Stochastic<50, MACD<0, PnF buy:
AMR, ISIS, LMNX

Most Interesting stock of the day from the above screens:
None.

This list is just a list of stocks of interest, it isn't a buy list in any way.  Any feedback would be appreciated.

There is considerable decline in the numbers today.  Is this setting up for a good change of month rally move, or is this the advance sign of the 4 year cycle top?  Maybe we'll find out next week.

Remember, Darvas stocks are stocks where price is more than double the 52 week low.

Darvas Stocks (>$5 share, >60,000 average volume)

As of 4/27/06: (portfolio stocks underlined)

Number of Darvas Stocks: 628 (-16)
Number of Darvas Stocks with a Point and Figure (PnF) buy signal: 529 (-29)
Bullish Percent: 84.2% (-2.4%)

Number of Darvas Stocks with Point and Figure Charts in Xs: 350 (-69)

Number of Darvas Stocks at new 52 week highs: 28 (4.5%, -30)
New highs with 2.5x average volume:
AMKR, ASPV, CHRT, CRUS, FRNS, JOBS, LMNX, PMTI, SHOO, SKX

New PnF buy signals:
DXPE, LMNX
New PnF sell signals:
ACI, AMLN, ASEI, ATI, BUCY, CENX, CNQR, CPL, EXP, FCX, ITCG, JLG, LAB, OPTC, OS, PBR, RS, RTI, TEX

New PnF Charts in Xs:
AAPL, ASPV, CONN, GEHL, HMY, HOLX, ISIS, LMNX, LPTH, LVS, MNKD, PTRY, STRL, TWTR, URGI, WCC

Last Stochastic (Slow Stochastic 39,3) cross of 20 with a PnF buy:
ALO, DDD, GGR, LANV, LMNX, LSI

MACD below zero cross with a PnF buy:
BMRN, CELG, ISIS, LMNX

Parabolic SAR buy signal with Last Stochastic<50, MACD<0, PnF buy:
AMR, ISIS, LMNX

Most Interesting stock of the day from the above screens:
None.

STXS

Bought STXS today at 11.94.

A low risk trade.  It goes up, or it drops below the recent congestion and I'm out.  I was in this stock during its huge run up.

4/27/06

The portfolio was up  +0.28% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.

The Russell 2000 was down -0.50%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 85 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.28% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.

The Russell 2000 was down -0.50%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 85 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.28% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.

The Russell 2000 was down -0.50%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 85 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.28% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.

The Russell 2000 was down -0.50%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 85 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.28% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.

The Russell 2000 was down -0.50%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 85 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.

The portfolio was up  +0.28% today.  It closed at a new all time high, surpassing the previous high of yesterday.

The Russell 2000 was down -0.50%.

The score for the year in completed trades is 90 winners and 85 losers.   The average profit amount is 2.08 times the average loss amount.  The current portfolio contains 20 stocks, 15 are up and 5 are down.