For January 2006 the portfolio was up +9.01%.
The Russell 2000 was up +8.91%.
Over the last 12 months the portfolio is up +27.54% while the Russell 2000 was up +17.50%.
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January 31, 2006
January 30, 2006
CBH
Bought CBH today at 33.22.
Back into CBH only 9 cents above what I sold it at two weeks ago. The chart looks a lot better now than it did then. The stochastic is moving up, the MACD is about to do a bullish cross, and most importantly it has clearly broken its downtrend line. And to top it off, a director bought 30,000 shares last week.
January 29, 2006
Weekly Review
This weekly review will be a little different than those in the past. This week I'm going to look longer term.
The market has been in a rally since October. We are closing in on 3 months of rally. Let's take a look at a long term monthly chart of the NASDAQ bullish percent index:
This is a very interesting chart. First thing I notice is that the bullish percents broke out of a symmetric triangle this month. A downtrend in bullish percent highs since the end of 2004 has been broken. However, also note that the bullish percents have gone up for 3 months straight. It is clear from this chart that rallies of more than 3 months in bullish percents are rare. There was a 4 month rally in late 2004. The initial rally of the bull market in 2003 went 5 months. There was a 5 month rally in 1997. But 3 months is usually the limit.
Also notice that bullish percents are higher today than they were during the bubble in 1999. You have a better chance of getting a winner with random entry now than you did then.
Now here's a similar chart for the NYSE summation Index:
Same thing, although it hasn't broken the downtrend yet. Again, rallies more than 3 months are rare.
So what does this mean?
My interpretation of these charts is that this rally will end either in early February, early March, or early April. I expect another good week this week, although a couple of down days would not surprise me. Then we will hit the February cycle high this Friday.
My intuition is saying that the end will not be early February because there is still too much fear in the market. Not everyone has been sucked in yet, so there are still buyers out there who don't want to miss the rally. Also, the experts say that the last part of a bull market is always the strongest, and we clearly haven't seen that yet.
If we get a really strong week this week, that could bring everyone in and that could signal the top. There are signs this could happen. The number of new highs last Friday was extraordinary, something not seen since last July. The end of July was, of course, the previous top.
I hope that doesn't happen, it would be nice to get another month out of this rally. I'm really pleased with how some of my buys this week are acting: BEAV, BRO, BTUI, EXPD, EXBD, FDS, IRIS, and VPHM are all looking like they are coming off bottoms. They don't look they they are topping.
Here's the weekly Technical Market Report. Highlights:
The good news is:
• The small and mid cap indices all closed at new all time highs on Friday.
• There were 278 NASDAQ new highs on Friday, the highest number recorded since 12/1/2004.
There is no insider buying of note except in small banks. Actually, the insider buying in small banks is starting to interest me, I may take some action on that soon.
My plan for week: I still have a small amount of cash for buys, but my main concern will be watching for my buys last week to move higher.
See you Monday.
January 28, 2006
January 27, 2006
Snoopy Dance: NTRI
Every time a stock in my portfolio goes up 10% or more in a single day, I do a Snoopy Dance!
NTRI was up +11.77% today. Why? The only news is that Citigroup initiated coverage. Ok, that's fine, but where was that analyst last year? He's only finding this one now?
EXPD
Bought EXPD today at 71.19.
Continuing on my operating philosophy of doing more of what is working and less of what is not, this is another additional (smaller) lot. Previous buy was on January 19. EXPD is starting to show a nice move since the first buy, the old high was challenged today.
BRO
Bought BRO today at 29.31.
This is another much smaller additional lot, in addition to my buy of yesterday. Again, another day of confirming a bottom is in place. Downtrend line is broken, stochastic has moved up out of oversold. If the MACD crosses, look out old high.
APOL
Bought APOL today at 56.19.
The slow stochastic is turning up from oversold, the MACD is about to make a bullish cross. All in all, it looks like a possible bottom.
I made a nice gain in this stock during the bear market of 2000-2002. The education group has been out of favor lately, but if the economy turns down it could run again. With a stop below the recent low, this is a low risk buy (using my new smaller position size).
About Me
- I am an amateur individual stock trader and this is my trading journal. I trade primarily momentum stocks based on technical analysis and insider buying. Email: tomstaafl at gmail.com
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October 2006
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